Introduction to various factors influencing the printing industry
2011 is the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan. The launch of the new strategic industry plan, the upgrading of residents' consumption and the further acceleration of urbanization all contain huge market demand and development space, and economic development faces many favorable conditions. With the gradual expansion of private investment fields and the continuous optimization of investment environment, the increase of employment and the improvement of income distribution, the consumption of urban and rural residents will be further activated, and the consumer goods market is expected to continue to maintain a prosperous situation. Through comprehensive calculation, China's economy is expected to maintain a steady and rapid growth trend in the structural adjustment in 2011, with GDP growth of about 9.5%.
Forecast of fixed assets investment situation
Although there are many favorable conditions for maintaining a reasonable scale of fixed asset investment in 2011, factors such as restrictions on investment in new production capacity of some traditional industries, the possibility of hesitation of real estate developers and slowing down of investment progress, constraints on the financing capacity of local governments by normative requirements will affect the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2011, especially that emerging industries have not yet developed to the start of enterprises At the stage of large-scale industrial replacement investment in fixed equipment, the willingness of private investment to grow independently is not strong. It is estimated that the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society will be about 24% in 2011, and the actual growth rate will be lower than that in 2010.
Consumption forecast
In recent years, the change of employment situation and wage level has strengthened the potential for expanding consumption. The construction of social security system helps to alleviate the worries of residents' consumption. The growth mode of saving consumption makes our consumption more stable, but the rise of house price and price has a greater negative impact on the consumption ability and willingness of some urban and rural residents. Household appliances go to the countryside, household appliances, automobiles and motorcycles are old In 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 18.5% in nominal terms and 14% in real terms, which is the same as that in 2010.
Forecast of import and export trade situation
There are many uncertainties in the growth of foreign trade export. The high unemployment rate in developed countries makes the growth of residents' consumption weak, which will affect the demand for Chinese goods to a certain extent; trade protectionism is further intensified, and trade frictions are significantly increased. The adjustment of China's economic structure will weaken the new demand for raw material import, the appreciation of RMB will have a great impact on the adjustment of trade structure, the upgrading of China's industrial structure will drive the upgrading of export trade structure, the export of capital goods with high technology content will grow faster than the traditional products with advantages, and China's export to emerging market countries is expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth. It is predicted that the growth rate of China's foreign trade import and export in 2011 will be lower than that in 2010. It is preliminarily predicted that foreign trade export will increase by about 16% year on year, import by about 20%, and surplus by US $165 billion, down by about 13.2% year on year.
